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Event wine planner

A provisioning estimate for a host: how many bottles to buy for a given number of guests over a given number of hours.

This is a shopping estimate

The figures here answer “how much should I buy so I do not run out”. They are not a suggestion about how much anyone should drink, and the planning rates used are conventional catering assumptions rather than recommendations. Provide water and alternatives, and never assume a guest is drinking.

Count out drivers, non-drinkers and anyone on beer

Result

About 16 bottles

Total glasses to plan for: 68Equivalent standard bottles: 15.8If you buy magnums instead: 8 magnums
How this was worked out

Formula

bottles = ⌈(guests × proportion drinking × glasses per person × pour size) ÷ bottle volume⌉

Where

  • G = 20Guests. Total number of people attending.
  • d = 0.75Proportion drinking wine. The share of guests likely to drink wine rather than something else. Worth adjusting — it varies enormously by occasion.
  • h = 4 hoursDuration. How long wine will be served.
  • f = 1.5 glassesFirst-hour rate. Conventional catering planning figure. Consumption is typically higher in the first hour.
  • l = 1 glassesLater-hour rate. Planning figure for each hour after the first.
  • p = 175 mlPour size. Serving size per glass.
  • V = 750 mlBottle volume. Size of the bottles you are buying.

Steps

  1. Guests drinking wine: 20 × 0.75 = 15 = 15 people
  2. Glasses per drinker: 1.5 + (4 − 1) × 1 = 4.5 = 4.5 glassesThe first hour is counted separately because consumption is typically front-loaded at an event.
  3. Total glasses: 15 × 4.5 = 67.5 = 67.5 glasses
  4. Total volume: 67.5 × 175 ml = 11812.5 ml = 11812.5 ml
  5. Convert to bottles: 11812.5 ÷ 750 = 15.75 = 15.75 bottles
  6. Round up: ⌈15.75⌉ = 16 = 16 bottlesRounded up, because running out is the failure mode a host actually cares about.

What this assumes

  • This is a provisioning estimate for buying, not a target for anyone to drink. Guests drink what they choose to drink.
  • Consumption rates are conventional catering planning figures, not health guidance.
  • Assumes wine is available throughout and that other drinks are also on offer.

Where it stops being reliable

  • Real consumption varies enormously with the occasion, the time of day, whether food is served and who is driving.
  • A daytime lunch and a late-evening party with the same guest list will not consume similar amounts.
  • Unopened bottles usually keep, so erring slightly high costs little.

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